Trump Blames Cornyn and Rove as Paxton Trails in Texas Senate Race

Today’s Focus

President Donald Trump accused fellow Republicans on Thursday of undermining Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general and GOP nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. In a post on Truth Social, Trump singled out incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove.

Trump wrote that the two were “sadly, and very stupidly” working against Paxton out of personal jealousy, and said they were “hurting Texas and, more importantly, hurting the United States of America,” according to Politico and The Guardian.

He added that if Paxton loses, “it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove, who have ineffectively opposed me for my entire political career.”

Paxton, who has served as Texas attorney general since 2015, defeated Cornyn in a bruising primary earlier this year with Trump’s endorsement. He now faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a former teacher who has drawn national attention for viral social-media clips on faith and policy.

Public polling cited by The Guardian shows Talarico with a slight lead heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.

A Paxton defeat would complicate Republican hopes of expanding their Senate majority and would mark a rare personal setback for Trump in a state he carried by double digits in 2024. Trump’s post did not mention any specific actions by Cornyn or Rove, neither of whom responded publicly on Thursday, according to Politico.

The attack came the same day the White House faced separate questions over new press secretary Katie Zacharia, who confirmed she had not passed the California bar exam, The Washington Post reported.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Paxton’s backers say Texas Republicans in the Cornyn-Rove wing of the party have spent months quietly discouraging donors and consultants from working with the nominee. Trump’s Truth Social post framed that as sabotage of a duly chosen candidate, writing that the pair were “doing everything possible to make it hard” for Paxton.

Conservative commentators aligned with the America First movement argue that the base chose Paxton over Cornyn in the primary and that establishment Republicans are obligated to support the winner. The Texas GOP platform committee and state party chair Abraham George have publicly rallied behind Paxton, framing the race as a referendum on Trump’s agenda in his home-state stronghold.

Paxton’s campaign points to his record suing the Biden administration dozens of times, his lead role in the multistate challenge to the 2020 election results in other states, and his acquittal in a 2023 state Senate impeachment trial as evidence that he is a proven fighter. Supporters contend that unified Republican backing, rather than intraparty sniping, is what the campaign needs to close the gap with Talarico in the final stretch.

Critics argue

Cornyn allies and anti-Paxton Republicans counter that the attorney general is a uniquely weak nominee whose legal and ethical baggage, not Karl Rove, is driving the polling. Paxton was indicted on state securities-fraud charges in 2015, faced an FBI investigation over abuse-of-office allegations by former deputies, and was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the state Senate.

Democrats and Talarico’s campaign argue the race shows Texas voters are open to a change after years of Republican dominance. Talarico, a seminary student and former public-school teacher, has leaned into economic and education messaging that his campaign says is pulling in independents and suburban women.

Never Trump conservatives, including commentators at The Bulwark, have long argued that Trump’s practice of endorsing the most combative primary candidates costs the GOP winnable general elections, pointing to 2022 Senate losses in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. They contend the Texas race is following that pattern.

What the experts say

Nonpartisan analysts caution against reading too much into a single state poll. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter currently rates the Texas Senate contest as “Lean Republican,” noting the state’s underlying partisan lean even as it acknowledges Paxton’s unusually high unfavorable ratings.

Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, has told local outlets including The Texas Tribune that Paxton’s primary win masked deep crossover resistance among suburban Republicans and independents who voted for Cornyn. Jones has estimated that scenario gives Democrats their best Texas Senate opening since Beto O’Rourke came within three points of Ted Cruz in 2018.

Historical data from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shows that candidates under active criminal or ethics clouds underperform generic partisan baselines by roughly four to seven points in Senate races. Texas last elected a Democrat statewide in 1994, according to the Texas State Historical Association, making any Democratic win a significant realignment signal rather than a routine midterm swing.

By the Numbers

1988: last year a Republican did not win a U.S. Senate race in Texas, per The Guardian.

2015: the year Ken Paxton became Texas attorney general and was first indicted on state securities-fraud charges, according to The Texas Tribune.

2023: the year the Texas House impeached Paxton; the state Senate later acquitted him on all articles, per The Texas Tribune.

1994: the last time Texas elected a Democrat to any statewide office, according to the Texas State Historical Association.

2.6 points: Beto O’Rourke’s losing margin against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, the closest Texas Senate race in a generation, per Texas Secretary of State results.

Lean Republican: the current Cook Political Report rating for the 2026 Texas Senate race.

13.7 points: Trump’s 2024 margin of victory in Texas, according to the Texas Secretary of State.