Putin Threatens 'All Weapons,' Including Nuclear, to Defend Kaliningrad as NATO Tensions Rise

Today’s Focus

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Moscow would use “all weapons” at its disposal, including nuclear arms, to defend the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad if it comes under attack. He made the remarks at the annual Valdai Discussion Club foreign policy forum, according to the BBC and Reuters.

Putin framed the warning as a response to Western statements that Russia was preparing for a broader war with NATO by 2029 or 2030. He insisted Moscow was “not threatening anyone,” according to the BBC’s account of the speech.

Kaliningrad sits between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and hosts Russia’s Baltic Fleet. Russian officials spent the week accusing NATO of plotting to blockade the territory, a claim the alliance has denied.

NATO called on Moscow to end what it described as “nuclear threats” and reiterated that it is a defensive alliance, CNN reported. Secretary General Mark Rutte has previously urged restraint after a series of airspace incidents on the alliance’s eastern edge.

Those incidents piled up through September. Poland reported that a Russian helicopter crossed into its territory near Kaliningrad, and Lithuania said drones had entered its airspace, the BBC reported. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin was bracing for further hybrid attacks after an explosives-laden drone was discovered in August on the tarmac at Leipzig airport, near parked Ukrainian cargo planes.

Putin also predicted that international conflicts would continue in the near term but ease as “Western hegemony” fades, according to the BBC. The Kremlin has used the Valdai forum in past years to signal shifts in nuclear doctrine and foreign policy posture.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Russian officials and state commentators cast Putin’s remarks as a necessary deterrent against what they describe as Western encirclement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said in recent briefings that Russia will not tolerate any attempt to cut Kaliningrad off from the mainland.

Putin himself told the Valdai audience that Moscow was “not threatening anyone” but responding to Western leaders who have publicly discussed preparing for war with Russia later this decade, according to the BBC.

Allies of the Kremlin point to Lithuanian restrictions on rail transit to Kaliningrad in previous years, and to NATO’s expanded presence in Poland and the Baltics, as evidence that the exclave faces a credible military risk. Russian state outlets have argued the nuclear warning simply restates existing doctrine, which permits use of nuclear weapons when the state’s existence is threatened.

Some Western analysts sympathetic to a negotiated settlement, including figures associated with the Quincy Institute, have long argued that ignoring Russian red lines around Kaliningrad raises the risk of miscalculation. In that view, Putin’s speech is a signal to open channels, not a prelude to attack.

Critics argue

NATO governments and Western security officials called the speech another episode in a pattern of nuclear coercion. The alliance urged Moscow to halt “nuclear threats,” CNN reported, and stressed that no member state is planning offensive action against Kaliningrad.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany is preparing for more serious hybrid attacks, citing the August drone incident at Leipzig, according to the BBC. Polish and Lithuanian officials have described a steady escalation of airspace violations and sabotage attempts they attribute to Russian services.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has said in prior statements that his country’s population feels “constantly threatened” by Russian activity near the border. Critics argue that normalizing nuclear rhetoric is itself the escalation, not NATO’s defensive posture.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European officials have repeatedly said Putin uses nuclear language to deter Western military aid to Kyiv. In their view, the Valdai speech fits a template: raise the specter of nuclear use, then watch for Western hesitation.

What the experts say

Nonpartisan analysts say Putin’s language, while severe, largely restates Russia’s 2020 and 2024 nuclear doctrine updates rather than announcing new policy. Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research who tracks Russian nuclear forces, has written that Moscow’s declaratory posture allows nuclear use in response to conventional attacks that threaten the state’s existence.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates Russia fields roughly 1,710 deployed strategic warheads, with additional non-strategic weapons that could be based near or in Kaliningrad. The Federation of American Scientists, led on nuclear issues by Hans Kristensen, assesses Russia’s total nuclear stockpile at about 4,380 warheads.

Historians of the Cold War, including M.E. Sarotte of Johns Hopkins SAIS, have noted that Soviet and Russian leaders have periodically used nuclear signaling during moments of conventional weakness. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has documented a long-term rise in incidents of hybrid interference across Europe, independent of Moscow’s rhetoric, suggesting the Baltic security environment was already deteriorating before this week’s speech.

By the Numbers

1,710: Russia’s deployed strategic nuclear warheads under New START reporting, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

4,380: Estimated total Russian nuclear stockpile, per the Federation of American Scientists’ 2025 assessment.

15,100 sq km: Approximate area of Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders Poland and Lithuania, according to Russian federal statistics.

2029-2030: Timeframe cited by Putin as the Western-predicted window for a Russia-NATO war, per the BBC.

August 2025: When an explosives-rigged drone was found at Leipzig airport near Ukrainian cargo planes, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as reported by the BBC.

32: Number of NATO member states, following Sweden’s 2024 accession, per the alliance’s official roster.

1: Russian helicopter that Poland said crossed into its territory near Kaliningrad in the past week, per the BBC.