Poland Warns of Russian Drone and Missile Plots Against NATO States Backing Ukraine

Today’s Focus

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters in Warsaw on Thursday that his country’s intelligence services have concluded Russia is preparing drone or rocket strikes targeting NATO territory, according to The Associated Press and The Guardian.

Tusk said the plots would likely be framed as “accidental” incidents against countries supplying weapons or logistical support to Ukraine, NPR reported. He did not name specific targets but said the assessment covered several allied states.

The warning follows a September 10 incident in which roughly 19 Russian-made drones crossed into Polish airspace during a strike on Ukraine, prompting Polish and Dutch F-35s to shoot several down, the AP reported. It was the first time a NATO member fired on Russian assets over its own territory since the 2022 invasion began.

Tusk told the Polish parliament that Warsaw has shared its findings with NATO partners and the European Union, according to The Guardian’s live coverage. He described the threat as part of a wider Russian “hybrid” campaign that includes sabotage, arson at logistics hubs, and cyber operations across Europe.

The Washington Post reported that U.S. officials have been debating how forcefully to respond to what it called a string of “daring” Russian plots on allied soil, including alleged assassination planning and incendiary devices placed on cargo aircraft in 2024. President Donald Trump has so far declined to publicly attribute the September drone incursion to a deliberate Russian order.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any intent to strike NATO countries, telling reporters the accusations were “baseless,” according to Reuters coverage cited by The Guardian. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Wednesday the alliance is reinforcing its eastern air-defense posture under an operation dubbed “Eastern Sentry.”

The Debate

Supporters argue

Tusk and his coalition allies contend that publicly naming the threat is the point. “We must speak openly about what our services see,” Tusk told parliament, according to The Guardian, arguing that transparency deters Russian escalation by removing the cover of deniability.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said allied countries should treat drone incursions as acts of aggression and shoot down any Russian object entering NATO airspace, the AP reported. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal echoed the call, saying the Baltic states have documented repeated Russian airspace violations this year.

Editorial writers at The Washington Post argued Thursday that Washington’s restraint is being tested and that allies need clearer rules of engagement. Former NATO deputy secretary general Rose Gottemoeller, quoted by NPR, said the alliance’s credibility depends on demonstrating that Article 5 guarantees are not conditional.

Republican Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement that Congress should accelerate air-defense transfers to Poland and Romania and that the administration should reconsider any drawdown of U.S. forces in Europe.

Critics argue

Skeptics warn that broadcasting worst-case intelligence risks pulling NATO into a wider war on Moscow’s timetable. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Thursday that European leaders are “sleepwalking” toward direct confrontation, according to Reuters, and urged a return to ceasefire talks.

Inside Poland, opposition Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski accused Tusk of using the intelligence claim for domestic political advantage ahead of local elections, the AP reported, saying the government has not produced evidence to back the assessment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the Polish statements “part of an anti-Russian hysteria,” according to The Guardian, and said Moscow has no interest in a conflict with NATO.

Some U.S. conservatives, including commentators at The American Conservative, argued that expanded U.S. air-defense commitments to Eastern Europe conflict with the Trump administration’s stated goal of shifting the European security burden to European capitals. NBC News reported this week that the Pentagon is weighing a cut of 25,000 or more U.S. troops from Europe.

What the experts say

Nonpartisan analysts describe the pattern Tusk outlined as consistent with documented Russian “gray-zone” tactics. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in a July 2025 report by Seth Jones, counted at least 150 suspected Russian sabotage or influence operations across Europe since 2022, up from fewer than 20 in the two years before the invasion.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) noted in its 2025 Military Balance that Russian production of Shahed-type drones reached roughly 5,000 units in the first half of 2025, giving Moscow the volume needed for both saturation attacks on Ukraine and probing operations near NATO borders.

Keir Giles of Chatham House, a London-based research institute, told the BBC that Russian doctrine treats ambiguous strikes on NATO logistics as a way to test alliance cohesion without triggering Article 5. He said past incidents, including a 2022 missile that killed two people in Przewodow, Poland, showed how quickly attribution becomes contested.

RAND Corporation analyst Dara Massicot has written that Russian escalation typically follows perceived Western hesitation, suggesting the alliance’s public response now shapes the risk of a larger incident later.

By the Numbers

19: approximate number of Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace on September 10, according to the AP.

150+: suspected Russian sabotage or influence operations documented across Europe since 2022, per a July 2025 CSIS report by Seth Jones.

5,000: estimated Shahed-type drones produced by Russia in the first half of 2025, according to the IISS Military Balance.

25,000: minimum number of U.S. troops the Pentagon is considering withdrawing from Europe, NBC News reported this week.

2: civilians killed when a stray missile hit Przewodow, Poland, in November 2022, according to Reuters archives.

32: NATO member states now covered by the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defense clause, per NATO’s official membership list.

$66 billion: U.S. security assistance to Ukraine appropriated between 2022 and 2024, according to the Congressional Research Service.