New Hampshire and Rhode Island Vote in Primaries That Test Trump and a Rattled Left

Today’s Focus

Voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island went to the polls Tuesday to choose nominees in state primaries, according to NBC News and the AP.

The New Hampshire contests drew the most attention because of an open Senate seat. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat first elected in 2008, is not seeking reelection, and her departure set off a competitive scramble in both parties, the AP reported.

The primaries are the first statewide test of the 2026 cycle, and both parties are watching for signals about the mood of voters heading into the midterms. NBC News framed the day as a measure of President Donald Trump’s grip on Republican voters and of the left’s ability to regroup.

The New York Times reported that some New Hampshire Democrats have grown openly worried about their standing, with party figures describing a sense that they are falling behind in a state they have carried in recent federal races.

Rhode Island voters also picked nominees Tuesday, though the AP and The Guardian noted that the Ocean State’s races drew less national interest than New Hampshire’s open-seat fight.

The Guardian, which ran live coverage of the balloting, reported that turnout patterns and the margins in contested primaries would shape the general-election matchups this fall.

New Hampshire has long occupied outsized political importance because of its first-in-the-nation presidential primary tradition, and its Senate seat is expected to be among the more closely watched races nationally.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Republicans view Shaheen’s exit as a genuine pickup opportunity in a swing-leaning state. NBC News reported that GOP strategists see an open seat as far easier to contest than one defended by a long-tenured incumbent.

Trump-aligned Republicans argue the primaries let voters affirm the party’s direction rather than have it dictated by Washington. They contend that a competitive nominee, tested in a real primary, enters the general election stronger.

Supporters of the president point to New Hampshire’s independent streak and its history of splitting tickets as evidence the seat is winnable. They argue that economic frustration and concerns about the direction of the country give Republicans an opening with unaffiliated voters, who make up a large share of the state’s electorate.

For the party, a strong showing would validate the message that Trump’s coalition can compete beyond its base. NBC News noted that Republicans hope to expand the map in 2026, and a New England pickup would be a marquee example.

Critics argue

Democrats and their allies counter that New Hampshire has trended their way in recent federal elections and remains defensible. They argue Shaheen’s retirement, while a loss, does not hand the seat to Republicans.

The alarm sounded by some New Hampshire Democrats, as reported by The New York Times, is itself framed by party activists as a call to organize rather than a concession. They contend that early anxiety can mobilize donors and volunteers before the general election.

Critics of the Trump-aligned approach argue that a bruising primary can leave nominees weakened and pulled toward positions that alienate the state’s large bloc of independents. They point to the risk that a candidate who wins a base-driven primary struggles in a general electorate.

Democratic voices quoted by the Times insisted the party still holds structural advantages in the state’s suburbs. They argue the fundamentals favor a competitive race, not a rout, if Democrats respond to the warning signs now.

What the experts say

Nonpartisan analysts caution that a single primary offers limited predictive value for a general election more than a year out.

New Hampshire’s electorate is distinctive: the University of New Hampshire Survey Center has long documented that registered undeclared voters outnumber both Republicans and Democrats, giving independents decisive weight in statewide contests.

Historical data from the U.S. Senate shows open-seat races tend to be more competitive than those with incumbents, which helps explain why both parties are treating the Shaheen seat as a genuine tossup. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and similar handicappers routinely rate open seats as more volatile.

Pew Research Center surveys have consistently found that midterm turnout is lower than presidential-year turnout and skews toward more engaged partisans, a dynamic that can advantage the party with the more motivated base. Political scientists note that the president’s party has historically lost seats in midterm elections, a pattern that would cut against Republican expansion hopes. The interaction of these forces, analysts say, makes New Hampshire worth watching but far from settled.

By the Numbers

2008: the year Sen. Jeanne Shaheen was first elected to the U.S. Senate, per the AP.

2026: the midterm cycle for which Tuesday’s primaries chose nominees, according to NBC News.

2: the number of states, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, holding primaries Tuesday, per The Guardian.

1: New Hampshire’s status as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state, a tradition central to its political identity.

40%+: the share of New Hampshire voters registered as undeclared in recent years, as documented by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Every midterm since 1934 but two: the number of times the president’s party lost U.S. House seats, a pattern tracked by political scientists and the House historian’s office.