Nasdaq Futures Climb as Investors Buy the Dip in AI Stocks After Friday's Chip Rout

Today’s Focus

U.S. stock futures pointed higher before Monday’s open as investors moved back into artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares that had been sold off hard at the end of last week. CNBC reported that Nasdaq 100 futures were up roughly 1% in premarket trading, with S&P 500 futures also in positive territory and Dow futures lagging.

The rebound followed a sharp Friday decline centered on chipmakers and AI infrastructure names. The Wall Street Journal reported that tech led Friday’s losses on renewed worries about stretched valuations and the pace of AI-related capital spending by hyperscalers.

Bloomberg described Monday’s move as a “chip rout losing steam,” noting that semiconductor equipment makers and large-cap AI names led the premarket recovery. Quartz reported that the Nasdaq Composite rose about 1% while the Dow slipped, a split that reflected rotation back into growth and away from cyclicals.

The backdrop includes stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data released over the weekend. The Guardian reported that China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, beating forecasts, driven by an export surge tied partly to AI-related hardware demand.

Investors are also weighing the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting and a wave of upcoming earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft and other megacap tech firms that have anchored the AI trade. CNBC noted that options markets are pricing in elevated volatility around those reports.

No single catalyst drove Friday’s selloff, according to Bloomberg, but analysts cited a mix of profit-taking, concerns about circular financing arrangements among AI vendors, and jitters about export controls on advanced chips.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Bulls on the AI trade argue that Monday’s bounce reflects fundamentals, not just dip-buying reflex. CNBC quoted Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who called the Friday selloff “a golden buying opportunity” and said the AI capex cycle remains in “the second inning.”

Supporters point to earnings. The Wall Street Journal noted that consensus estimates still show double-digit profit growth for the largest AI beneficiaries, with hyperscaler capital expenditures projected to top $400 billion in 2026.

Industry executives contend demand is outrunning supply. Bloomberg cited TSMC’s recent guidance that advanced-node capacity remains sold out through next year, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has told investors that Blackwell chip orders are “off the charts.”

Macro bulls add that China’s 4.5% third-quarter growth, reported by The Guardian, undercuts recession fears and supports continued global tech spending. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, quoted by CNBC, said the pullback was “healthy” and that the S&P 500 could finish the year above 6,900.

Critics argue

Skeptics see Friday’s drop as a warning rather than a dip. Economist Nouriel Roubini, cited in Bloomberg’s markets coverage, has argued that AI equity valuations have “detached from any plausible earnings path.”

Critics point to circular dealmaking. The Wall Street Journal has reported on arrangements in which chipmakers invest in AI startups that then buy their chips, a loop short-seller Jim Chanos described on CNBC as “vendor financing dressed up as demand.”

Bearish strategists also flag concentration risk. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, quoted by CNBC, has warned that roughly 40% of this year’s S&P 500 gains have come from a handful of AI names, leaving the index vulnerable if any one of them disappoints.

There are policy risks too. Reuters has reported that the Commerce Department is weighing tighter export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, which could cut into revenue at Nvidia, AMD and equipment makers like ASML and Applied Materials.

What the experts say

Nonpartisan analysts say the picture is mixed. The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook flagged “elevated financial stability risks” tied to concentration in a small number of U.S. technology stocks and warned that a sharp repricing could spill into the real economy.

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, published earlier this year, estimated that AI-related capital spending contributed roughly 0.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2026, a meaningful but not dominant share. Economists at the Brookings Institution have cautioned that productivity gains from generative AI, while real, are showing up unevenly across industries.

The Bank for International Settlements noted in its September quarterly review that forward price-to-earnings ratios for the largest U.S. tech firms sit near levels last seen in late 2021, though it stopped short of calling the market a bubble. Yale economist Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio stood above 37 in mid-October, well above its long-term average of about 17, according to data he publishes publicly.

By the Numbers

1%: approximate gain in Nasdaq 100 futures in Monday premarket trading, according to CNBC.

4.5%: China’s third-quarter GDP growth rate, beating forecasts, as reported by The Guardian and Quartz.

$400 billion: projected 2026 capital expenditures by the largest U.S. hyperscalers, per Wall Street Journal reporting on analyst estimates.

40%: approximate share of 2026 S&P 500 gains driven by a handful of AI-linked stocks, per Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, cited by CNBC.

0.4 percentage points: estimated contribution of AI-related investment to first-half 2026 U.S. GDP growth, per the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

37+: Yale economist Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio in mid-October 2026, versus a long-term average near 17.

$6,900: Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee’s year-end S&P 500 target, as cited by CNBC.