Iran Says Hormuz Route Deal With Oman Is Near, but the Strait Won't Reopen Fully

Today’s Focus

Iran’s foreign ministry said Wednesday that it had reached an understanding with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told the state news agency Irna that the arrangement was “in the final stages” and that the “geographical coordinates of the route” had been settled, the BBC reported. He offered no further detail on timing or enforcement.

Baqaei cautioned that the agreement with Oman would not, on its own, ensure safe passage. He tied continued insecurity to what he called the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, according to the BBC.

Iran has largely closed the strait since the US and Israel struck Iranian targets in February, according to the BBC. Both Iran and Oman sit on opposite ends of the narrow waterway.

The Guardian, citing reports from sources familiar with the talks, said Tehran would oversee inbound traffic while Oman would manage outbound shipping. Iran has said the strait would not function as the open international channel it was before the war.

President Donald Trump told Fox News this week that talks were “moving along nicely” and warned Iran would be “hit very hard” if the strait did not open soon, the BBC reported. Iranian sources rejected his suggestion that a full reopening was imminent, telling Reuters that key details remained unresolved and that Iran was not negotiating directly with Washington.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Backers of the arrangement frame it as a pragmatic route out of a standoff that has choked global energy flows for months. Trump told Fox News the negotiations were “moving along nicely,” presenting US pressure as the reason Tehran came to the table.

Supporters of Iran’s position cast the Oman deal as a legitimate assertion of sovereignty over a waterway that borders its coast. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told Irna the new route would be temporary, signaling flexibility rather than a permanent chokehold.

For Oman, mediation continues a long tradition of quiet Gulf diplomacy. By taking charge of outbound shipping, according to reports cited by the Guardian, Muscat can offer exporters a workable channel while giving Tehran a face-saving structure.

Energy market watchers who favor any reopening note that even a partial, jointly managed route beats a fully shut strait. Restoring some tanker traffic, they argue, would ease supply fears that have pushed oil prices higher, as Reuters reported.

Critics argue

Critics contend the deal cements Iranian control over one of the world’s most vital trade arteries rather than restoring it. One source told Reuters, “The concession has already been made regarding some form of control over Hormuz,” a shift opponents say rewards Tehran for closing the strait in the first place.

Separate reporting cited by NPR indicates Iran aims to bar US and Israeli ships and to charge tolls on others, which critics view as a levy on global commerce and a discriminatory restriction on freedom of navigation.

Skeptics also question whether the agreement resolves anything, since Baqaei conceded that safe passage is not guaranteed while the US blockade stands. That leaves shippers exposed to the same risks that emptied the strait.

Others in Washington doubt Trump’s framing. Iranian sources told Reuters that important terms are unsettled and that Tehran is not negotiating with the US, undercutting claims that a reopening is close at hand.

What the experts say

The strait’s importance is well documented. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption, transit Hormuz, making it the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

International law scholars point to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation. Legal analysts at bodies such as Chatham House have noted that a coastal state cannot lawfully suspend that passage, complicating any Iranian claim to control entry.

Energy economists tracked the market response in real time. Reuters reported that crude prices rose on uncertainty over how and when the strait might reopen, illustrating how sensitive global supply remains to signals from Tehran.

Regional analysts note Oman’s established record as a back channel between Iran and the West, including its role in earlier nuclear diplomacy. That history helps explain why Muscat, rather than Washington, is the party finalizing terms with Tehran.

By the Numbers

One-fifth: the share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the BBC.

~20 million barrels per day: oil volume the US Energy Information Administration estimates transits Hormuz, its highest-ranked global chokepoint.

February 2026: when the strait was effectively closed following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to the BBC.

Inbound vs. outbound: under reported terms, Iran would control ships entering the Gulf and Oman would oversee outbound traffic, according to the Guardian.

Tolls: Iran aims to charge non-US, non-Israeli vessels a fee to use the strait, according to NPR.

Temporary: Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told Irna the new route would be temporary, per the BBC.

Higher prices: oil rose on concerns tied to the reopening plans, according to Reuters.