Houthis Seize Yemeni Port of Mocha, Pushing Toward Control of Red Sea Chokepoint

Today’s Focus

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed control of the Red Sea port of Mocha on Wednesday, in what The Guardian described as the most serious wave of fighting with the internationally recognized Yemeni government since a UN-brokered ceasefire took hold in April 2022.

The advance puts Iran-aligned forces within striking distance of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the narrow passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa through which a large share of Europe-Asia shipping and Gulf oil exports flows. Reuters reported that the Houthis are closing in on a stranglehold over the strait, while Al Jazeera said rebel units are advancing along the coast toward the chokepoint.

The New York Times, citing Yemeni officials, reported the port seizure and said government forces have opened new operations in Taiz province and toward Sana’a, the Houthi-held capital. The Associated Press wrote that Yemen risks a return to full civil war.

Saudi Arabia responded on Thursday with as many as 40 airstrikes on Houthi positions, according to The Guardian. The paper reported that Riyadh is weighing whether to invoke the Mecca defense agreement, which could bring Pakistani and Turkish forces into the fight alongside Saudi troops.

Analysts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defense think tank cited by The Guardian, said the situation in Yemen is “spiralling out of control” and described the Houthi push as an attempt to open a second front alongside the battle for the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and US forces have been exchanging fire. President Donald Trump said this week that the war with Iran would end “immediately” after the November midterm elections, according to NBC News and CBS News.

The Debate

Supporters argue

Backers of a firm response to the Houthi advance, including Gulf officials and hawkish policy voices in Washington, argue that allowing Iran-aligned forces to control both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would give Tehran a veto over a large slice of global trade.

RUSI told The Guardian the Yemeni government is opening new fronts precisely because it believes sustained military pressure is the only way to force the Houthis back. Saudi officials, quoted by Reuters, framed Thursday’s airstrikes as a defensive measure to protect shipping and the kingdom’s southern border.

Trump administration officials have argued that degrading Houthi military capacity is essential to any broader deal with Iran. In earlier statements reported by CBS News, the White House has tied the Red Sea campaign to its wider confrontation with Tehran, saying that Iran’s proxies must be weakened before negotiations can succeed.

Editorial voices at hawkish outlets have urged Washington to help Riyadh activate the Mecca defense pact and bring Pakistani and Turkish forces to bear, arguing that a multinational Sunni coalition would carry more weight than US strikes alone.

Critics argue

Opponents of deeper intervention warn that a broadened war in Yemen risks another humanitarian catastrophe and could pull the United States into an open-ended regional conflict.

Aid groups quoted by the Associated Press said the country is already suffering from years of blockade, cholera outbreaks and famine conditions, and that renewed large-scale fighting would collapse what remains of civilian infrastructure. The UN, which sponsored the 2022 ceasefire, has repeatedly warned that a return to full war would erase four years of diplomatic work.

Progressive lawmakers in Congress, including members who forced earlier War Powers Resolution votes on US involvement in Yemen, have argued that continued American backing for Saudi operations lacks congressional authorization. They point to the 2019 Senate vote, which passed 54-46, as evidence of bipartisan unease.

Analysts writing in Al Jazeera contended that Saudi airstrikes have historically failed to dislodge the Houthis and instead deepened their alliance with Tehran. Critics also warn that invoking the Mecca agreement could drag Pakistan, a nuclear power, into a Middle East war it has spent years trying to avoid.

What the experts say

Independent researchers say the strategic stakes at Bab al-Mandeb are real but often overstated in isolation. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas trade passed through the strait before Houthi attacks began disrupting traffic in late 2023.

The International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch data, cited widely in shipping analyses, showed Suez Canal transits fell by more than half in 2024 as carriers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Clarksons Research has estimated that the diversion adds roughly 10 to 14 days to a typical Asia-Europe voyage.

Peter Salisbury, a Yemen specialist at the International Crisis Group, has written that the Houthis have consistently used escalation to extract concessions and that a purely military approach by Riyadh has not produced lasting gains since the war began in 2015. The UN Development Programme estimated in 2021 that the Yemen conflict had caused about 377,000 deaths, most from indirect causes such as hunger and disease.

RUSI’s assessment, quoted by The Guardian, is that neither side currently has the capacity to deliver a decisive blow, meaning a prolonged coastal war is the most likely outcome.

By the Numbers

12%: approximate share of seaborne oil trade that passed through the Bab al-Mandeb strait before 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
40: number of airstrikes Saudi Arabia launched on Houthi targets on Thursday, according to The Guardian.
April 2022: date of the UN-sponsored ceasefire that reduced major military exchanges in Yemen until this week, per The Guardian.
377,000: estimated total deaths from Yemen’s war through 2021, according to the UN Development Programme.
50%+: decline in Suez Canal transits in 2024 as ships rerouted to avoid Houthi attacks, according to IMF PortWatch data.
54-46: 2019 US Senate vote to end American military support for the Saudi-led Yemen coalition, later vetoed by President Trump.
2015: year the Saudi-led coalition first intervened in Yemen’s civil war against the Houthis.